Dr. Thaung Htun listening to the Myanmar opposition
Exiled politicians from Myanmar arrived in Brussels to meet with parliamentarians and others in their bid to put pressure on Senior General Than Shwe’s military rule, ahead of expected 2010 elections. The Obama administration has announced a change in policy towards the what is regarded as one of the world’s most repressive and abusive regimes.
The Burmese junta say they are planning to introduce reforms, but are not being specific, neither have they issued the election law under which any elections will be held. Sanctions remain a sticking point; the Generals want them ended and the White House is offering dialogue whilst keeping open the option to increase sanctions. The government in exile sent two high ranking representatives to Brussels, Dr. Thaung Htun, their UN representative and Bo Hlia-Tint, Minister for Foreign Affairs, to brief on the National Reconciliation Proposal endorsed by an unprecedented alliance of pro-democracy and ethnic nationality groups.
Bo Hla-Tint explains, “We believe that our National Reconciliation Proposal which offers to enter into dialogue with the junta before the 2010 elections is essential and achievable if the UN, EU and international key players put will focus on Burma. An and work together, we can have a more inclusive approach to the 2010 elections is the only way that the upcoming elections will have any credibility or legitimacy.” They have had a meetings with officials from the main institutions to brief them on the oppositions more co-ordinated plans for the elections and beyond. Dr. Htun predicts that the 2010 election is likely to be problematic, “The elections will not be a solution, but it will create more problems. We and we need to find solutions to Burma’s problems before the election so we’re presenting our National Reconciliation Proposal as a solution to be considered by European policy makers.” The Proposal is the result of a long consultation with exile groups and pro-democracy forces inside the country. They are looking towards the UN as the main driver, but wish to include the EU, US and ASEAN to encourage the Military towards the negotiating table. Dr Htun wants to include China in any talks, “We can’t leave China out of discussions, they are a neighbour and have increasing influence on the regime. In the past, China were defending the regime unilaterally but now we see that China is growing more concerned because of the instability created by the breakdown of the ceasefire agreements on the shared border and they are getting frustrated with the regime. so it is a good time to engage with China and look for a common strategy.”
But are the junta interested? At the UN, General Thein Sein, Prime Minister announced that “The transition to democracy is proceeding”. Is it proceeding? “Well, we would like to see that a real transition is taking place, but it isn’t: without concentrated effort by the international community the military will go ahead with their own road map,” says Mr Hlia-Tint, “and the election won’t have the involvement of Aung San Sui Kyi or other imprisoned leaders.” Dr. Htun said “We looked at that speech to the UN General Assembly and we were disappointed because there was no new message from the regime, they are just repeating the old story. The way they are planning their so-called ‘disciplined democracy’ means they are planning to install a government where the military will continue to play a dominant role. It means that it won’t be a real democracy and this is why we say it will just cause more problems. We’re seeing instability on the China/Burma border and rising tensions between the army and ethnic groups and the situation is deteriorating.”
The US policy change towards dialogue has been welcomed by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but it is thought to have been motivated by the regime’s increasing involvement with China, and more ominously, North Korea. Is Myanmar getting squeezed between the US ambitions and growing Chinese influence in the region? Hla-Tint is concerned, “When the US says it wants to engage, we want them to engage with the military and the democratic leadership at the same time at high levels. We need serious attention on the country, on human rights, the increasing collaboration with Pyongyang and so on”. Dr. Htun sees this as a positive step from Obama, “In recent years we’ve seen the US engage with China and India and we want them to work together to find solutions for Burma, so we support high level engagement with the top Generals and we are encouraged by some of the signals we see from the regime.” The opposition leaders also see changes within ASEAN from their non-intervention policy, according to Mr Hla-Tint, “They have become more aware of the depths of the problems, such as human rights abuses and have become more outspoken and supportive of change. We believe that it is time for ASEAN to show their dedication to the principles in their own charter, principles like good governance, democracy and respect for human rights.”
They are calling for the immediate release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but say that there is one encouraging step the regime could take. The opposition leader, who is expected to be under house arrest until after the elections, has written to the junta chief, Senior-General Than Shwe asking to meet senior members of her own party and ambassadors of the US and Western countries as preparations to negotiate an end to sanctions. How the regime responds will send a signal, not just to the opposition, but to the US and the EU.
