Which one is on the right?
Harold Wilson once said that “A week is a long time in politics” and time seemed to drag for the Labour party at their annual conference. Privately,labourites are talking about the imminent election in apocalyptic tones and there are muttered conversations where a passer by can hear whispered words like ‘wipeout’, ‘oblivion’ and some are even wondering if the party can survive. It is reminiscent of the pre-Blair era, when insiders wondered if the party would ever be elected.
The mood gets darker, the more closer you get to the inner circle around Brown, who are at the receiving end of the Prime Minister’s notorious wrath. One can only imagine what the atmosphere was like on Wednesday morning then copies of The Sun, landed on people’s desks. After supporting Labour for over a decade, it has come out aggressively for David Cameron’s Tories. This may explain why Cameron and William Hague have become such archeurosceptics.
Brown also had another setback when BBC journalist asked him if he was taking strong anti-depressants, based on rumours from right wing bloggers. The response was an angry and ill-tempered denial, suggesting to some that if he wasn’t on medication, then he should be. The Labour spin machine is gearing up for a bit of old fashioned Stalinist revenge. Last Summer, MrMarr obtained an injunction to prevent publication in the national press of what his lawyers described as “private” information about him.
Not only that, he got an injunction to prevent the press saying he had taken out an injunction. This was overturned after a costly legal fight by the UK satirical magazine, Private Eye. Expect this information to leak out, possibly under Parliamentary privilege.
as Conservatives gather in Manchester, they are also going to face a long week. Their biggest problem is Europe, something that has previously split the party and severely affected their electability. with victory in sight, can they keep their act together? This week will be instructive. The conference will have several fringe meetings on Europe, but one meeting is going to be interesting.
The Conservatives are not giving information out, but the EuroMEP’s will be hosting a reception, and journalists are excluded and there will be a fringe on the Tuesday which Derk Jan Eppink, Michal Kaminski and Timothy Kirkhope will be at. Was Kaminski invited? Will he be speaking? These questions are unanswered. As the Labour spin machine moves into action, it is expected thatKaminski will be a target and there is a dossier on him that is meant to be explosive.
Will it come out, say after Cameron’s speech? Of course, this dossier may be a damp squib and it is very possible that the British electorate won’t notice or care, but for a party who know Europe is their Achilles heel, caution is the rule.
By the start of the conference the results of the Irish referendum will be known but Hague is trying to use all his gravitas to keep the issue under wraps, telling the Daily Telegraph, It is important to be clear. As we can only have one policy at a time, there will be no new announcement, no departure from that in Manchester, whatever the result of the Irish referendum.” Of course, the chances of Dan Hannon keeping mum on the result is zero, but what about others, especially the pro-Europe Ken Clarke. When will he speak up? All Clarke has said so far is a repeat of Hague’s shut up policy.
The Conservative policy on a British referendum is clear, as Cameron told the BBC, “If this treaty is still alive, if it is still being discussed and debated anywhere in the EU then we will give you that referendum, we will name the date during the election campaign. We’ll hold that referendum straight away and I will lead the campaign for a ‘No’.” But the probability is that the Lisbon Treaty will be ratified by the time of a general election, what would Cameron do then? “a new set of circumstances apply and I will address that at the time”. This is leadership after the event and not preparing for probable futures is not a good sign for a government in waiting.
Meanwhile, Tony Blair is preparing to be made the President of the European Council. Brown is said to be chuckling at leaving this parting gift for Cameron, for that is what passes for humour in the dark recesses of Number Ten. This prospect is infuriating the Tories and William Hague, who becomes more like LordTebbit by the day, has said, “Imagine what this says to the British people if they vote out a Labour Government and then discover that one of the prime authors is still in power over them without anyone having a vote on whether the office should even exist, let alone on who should hold it.” There may be a few issues, just appearing on the horizon that could scupper Blair’s ambitions. One is the promised inquiry into the Iraq war that could show Blair in a very poor light, the second is the decision of the Serious Fraud Office to prosecuteBAE Systems, a case that Blair tried to block. Indeed he successfully quashed an investigation into BAE’s alleged corruption with Saudi Arabian leaders, citing ‘national security’.
Perhaps these factors may work against him, in which case Gordon Brown will never have to say the dreaded words, “President Blair”, when they next meet.
